TMA Issues Outlook for March–May 2026 Long Rains Season



Dar es Salaam, February 5, 2026

The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has issued the rainfall outlook for the March to May 2026 long rains season, indicating that northern coastal areas and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while the northeastern highlands are likely to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.

The outlook was announced today in Dar es Salaam by the Director General of TMA, Dr. Ladislaus Chang’a, during a press briefing with journalists.

Dr. Chang’a, who also serves as the Vice Chairperson of the International Panel on Climate Change Science and Countries, explained that the long rains season affects areas that experience two rainfall seasons per year. These include the northeastern highlands (Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro regions), the northern coast (including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Tanga and the northern islands of Unguja), as well as the Lake Victoria Basin and the Lake Tanganyika shoreline in Kigoma Region.

According to Dr. Chang’a, the long rains are expected to begin between the fourth week of February and the first week of March 2026 in the Lake Victoria Basin, and between the first and second weeks of March in the northern coastal areas. In the northeastern highlands, the rains are forecast to start between the second and third weeks of March.

He added that the rains are expected to end between the fourth week of May and the first week of June 2026, with the peak of rainfall anticipated in April.

On the spatial distribution, Dr. Chang’a stated that normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most northern coastal areas as well as in Kagera, Geita and northern Kigoma regions.

Meanwhile, normal to below-normal rainfall is forecast for the northeastern highlands and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, including Mwanza, Shinyanga, Mara and Simiyu regions.

Despite the general outlook, he cautioned that extreme weather events, including short-duration heavy rainfall, may occur even in areas expected to receive normal rainfall amounts.

Dr. Chang’a noted that heavy rains could result in several impacts such as flooding, damage to infrastructure, outbreaks of diseases affecting humans and livestock, and challenges in the construction and water sectors. However, the rains are also expected to bring positive impacts, including improved availability of water for domestic use, agriculture and livestock.

He issued sector-specific advisories, urging farmers to prepare their fields on time, apply water conservation techniques and adhere to guidance from agricultural extension officers. Livestock keepers were encouraged to plan for adequate water and pasture use and to take preventive measures against livestock diseases.

Stakeholders in the construction sector were advised to closely follow daily weather forecasts to minimize risks of flooding and project delays. In the health sector, the public was urged to use clean and safe water and to take preventive measures against water- and vector-borne diseases.

Local Government Authorities were also encouraged to strengthen storm-water drainage systems and disaster risk management plans.

Dr. Chang’a emphasized that the outlook provides a general seasonal forecast, and therefore the public is advised to continue following 24-hour, 10-day and monthly forecasts, as well as official warnings that will be issued by TMA from time to time.


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